Juice by Tim Winton, book review
This is an epic – over 500 pages for the Picador paperback edition published in 2024. Of all of the cli-fi novels I have so far read (scroll in this blog to see the others), it is probably the most chilling. It is chilling because this is a novel informed by the scientific consensus about global warming: it is happening, life will become increasingly difficult in our lifetimes (and I am heading out of this world more than I am heading into it), civilisation will break down, though not universally (more on this below), and there will be violence. Oh, and there is a little sub-plot about machines that can either help us if we let them or kill us.
This review is full of spoilers – read no further if this book is on your reading list.
It is written in the first person, which is not my favourite style. Most of the characters are nameless; there are a few exceptions including the lead character’s wife, Sun, and their daughter, Ester. It is set on an Australian homestead run and worked by the lead character and his mother. Sun joins later. They are successful in growing food, raising fowl and harvesting water. They live underground for half of the year as the heat – over 55 degrees Celsius – is too much on the surface. The lead character is big into salvage and has a whopping great solar-powered truck (rig) to repatriate his finds. The economy is one of barter. People trade in the nearby hamlet through a co-op known as The Association.
One day, the lead character goes to the hamlet to trade for parts to repair a warped central axle on their barrel turbine caused by a recent storm. He encounters the Filmlayer, a trader with one eye and broken teeth. The Filmlayer was known to visit his mother. He grabbed the young man and frog-marched him to a shelter where he encounters a nameless woman whose payment for the new axle is his attention. He consents and is confronted by a visual display of the realities of the world transformed by the warming (wildfires, for example) along with fast moving images of houses, people, vehicles, “kit”, etc. He was being recruited to a highly secret organisation known as the The Service. A mixture of fear and curiosity led to his agreement to undertake the “Basic” training under the tutelage of a woman known as Awe.
The book starts somewhat close to the end (of the lead character’s story). Our character is in his rig along with a child searching for that one place to settle. He drives up to, what appears to be, a deserted mine, only to find it is occupied with a rather aggressive man, the Bowman, who takes them prisoner underground. It is in the course of one evening/night that our lead character tells the Bowman his story. It is an incredible one at that. We know that the oath to secrecy about the Service has gone, but we do not know why. The Bowman also claims to be a veteran and is equally scarred and disenchanted.
The Service
During the basic training, volunteers are inculcated with the purpose of the Service; namely to rid the world of networks and bloodlines of the people who caused the warming – largely the fossil fuel company bosses and their helpers. Because of their vast wealth from extraction, these people live in protected, remote and secret citadels. It is clear that a lot of intelligence work goes into finding the citadels and drawing up the plans to attack them in elaborate and complex operations involving planes, helicopters, ships and sophisticated weaponry.
Our lead character is a decorated veteran having been part of, or leader in, some of the most high profile raids. He played a leading role in the operation that saw off the so-called Exxons, for example, commonly referred to as the Utah operation. The Bowman claimed to be part of that operation, too. The story of that raid takes us into the bowels of the citadel revealing the privileged lifestyle of its residents, relative to homesteaders, city dwellers and itinerants.
In between these secret operations, the lead character maintains his life as homesteader. Sun enters as an apprentice vet who comes to the homestead to assess the health of the fowl. He is immediately smitten. When she finds out that she is no longer required by the vet she agrees to join the homestead and make a new life away from the city. They build their own house from salvage and the largesse that is a reward for service. And eventually they have a child whom they name Ester because of the association with the smell of sweet fruit and for the “warrior queen of the sagas” (p294)
By virtue of the fact that the lead character is no longer with Sun and Ester or his mother, we know that something happened along the way. Ultimately, there are two causes. Sun and Ester leave the homestead whilst the lead character is on an operation. The cause is a rumour that when he is away he is actually with another family in the South. His mother pleads with him not to go looking for them. The lead character convinces himself that they will be back. The second reason is the growing harshness of the climate. Storms not only flood homesteads but huge hailstones destroy everything – homes, growing houses, vehicles. Notwithstanding the increasing temperatures in which nothing grows. The homesteads’ self-sufficiency evaporates. The people become refugees heading south seeking cooling and new lives. After the death of his mother, our lead character continues alone for a few more seasons punctuated by one final mission: to get the Aramcos!
The Sims
The Aramco mission is like no other. Normal protocols are broken but defended by the leaders as necessary to destroy this critical citadel. They will use a proscribed weapon, fire. They travel by sea and are acclimatised to the extreme conditions on board wearing full combat gear and being forced to stand for long periods. Volunteers die during the voyage and are committed to the sea. Those that remain are tough, ready to do their service.
It does not go well. Whilst many enemy defenders are killed, it is impossible to penetrate the citadel not least because so many Service members are themselves killed. Our character is injured but is picked up and protected by 11 sims (p420) who seemingly were “slaves” of the Aramcos. Sims are human in form, seemingly partly organic, but most certainly electronic as witnessed when they are destroyed by fighters or others. Our character will have a later encounter with a sim after fleeing the homestead.
This group of sims are looking for liberation and they want to be taken to Australia and away from the desert. Our character reassures them that he will honour that wish in exchange for safe passage to the coast where the support ship is waiting for the escaping Service people. They take him through the searing desert under an insulation blanket as well as plying him with food and water. The personnel on the support ship do not wait for explanations and summarily destroy the sims. Another question is raised. And it is a significant one. Who is running all of this? A drone delivered ordinance, was it directed by human or is it autonomous? The sims only shrug at this question (p419).
As noted, our lead character has another encounter with a sim. On his search for sanctuary in the South he encounters a sim who has taken responsibility for an orphan child. He agrees to take them with him, despite being one extra mouth to feed (the sim is recharged by sunbathing). One evening they are confronted by three men who take her prisoner, sexually abuse her and then destroy her. Our lead character in turn kills them leaving him alone with the child. These are not the only people he uses violence against – a man caught trying to steel his water maker (clearly a valuable piece of kit) is beaten and has his wrist broken. Another has his rig burned and is left by the roadside bound and gagged.
The big questions
This final mission raises many questions that have not been asked earlier. Among them, who runs the Service? How does the intelligence work? How is the killing ultimately justified? Where does all of the kit come from? Should the current clan members be held responsible for the actions of their predecessors, even though they are living off the proceeds? Indeed, the Service volunteers have no history with the people who caused the warming. Indeed, our central character during basic training says “The dirty world is long gone. These people are dust now.” (p121) We may ask what kind of justice is being meted out and at what cost to Service volunteers (at best, diminished mental health at worst, death)? One final concern seems to be the secrecy and whose interests it serves. Whilst our lead character thinks that he is the only person in the Association who has been recruited, we learn later that that is not the case. Everyone is lying to everyone else all of the time. This is a society of zero trust. And for what? The World heats up relentlessly. The tipping points have been reached. No amount of killing is going to bring back the Holocene. “Maybe it was a mistake, I say. Trying to purify the world one dead body at a time.” (p461)
This reminds me very much of Richard Powers’ book, The Overstory, in which the protagonists’ direct action to protect a forest and its trees inadvertently leads to the death of loggers. A number of years pass and the group disperses with no accountability for their actions. That is until, for one of them, the guilt boils over and he implicates others leading to arrests and jail. In Juice, the lead character, in his big reveal, exposes his own culpability for the deaths. Through his exchange with the Bowman, he confronts his doubts. It is catharsis. It is the first time he has been able to tell the whole story. Reluctantly, if I read it correctly, the Bowman can no longer doubt him. Living the lie is over.
There’s another comparator that springs to mind, too. As I write this the BBC is airing its next series of Traitors – the celebrity version. This year featuring the likes of Hannah Fry, Michael Sheen, Richard E Grant, James Blunt and Joe Lycett (these are some of the ones I recognise). I have never watched Traitors because of the concept; namely deceit. I trust in the analysis by Rupert Read on the mechanics, but instead of it being a show for problem solving by collaboration, it is one that deliberately pits people against one another – in some cases, siblings and professional collaborators. Trust no one. They are out to kill you (or at least oust you from the show). That is how civilisation ends.
Here is the Guardian’s review by Rachel Seiffert of October 2024.
Picture, Tim Winton https://www.greenbelt.org.uk/artists/tim-winton/
JP Morgan disaster capital investments
Last week I posted a picture of a billboard advertising investments that would do the opposite of providing the security the investor seeks. Here is another one on the same theme.
I’ll risk interpreting the image as one of father and daughter. I trust the clarity there is an app that tells you your real-time financial performance? Questions though – they seem to be in a forest that is leafless. Autumn maybe? What does that say? Maybe without leaves the forest makes clear the routes through?
And, of course, The investments fund further biodiversity decline. The daughter has no future, despite the app.
When the advertised product does the opposite of what is intended
A number of years ago I posted regularly photographs of German billboards where it was still legal to advertise cigarettes. The Germans love all things dangerous and lethal, including driving at suicidal speeds. Those posts were very popular – and still are despite there being no additions to the collection since before Covid. It has been difficult to find a replacement, and hence my posts have focused on book reviews and political comment. I think I have now found a suitable replacement – investment advertising. Equally lethal.
Let me start with JP Morgan. The billboard on the left I snapped at Luton railway station on 11 September 2026. I see two potential messages here. The first is, how sweet, a sleeping child. And I presume that the child may be related to the potential pension investor. The second, of course, is JP Morgan’s expertise in investment that gets a better return than other financial services companies.
Whether that is true or not, I’m not sure. But what I am sure about is that if the investor is the parent of that child then investing with JP Morgan may not be as wise as it may seem. JP Morgan is the biggest investor in fossil fuels globally. Last year JP Morgan invested $58bn in fossil fuel interests. Interests that are totally against the future wellbeing of that child. When the child wakes up the question will be, “why did you finance fossil fuels when you knew that burning them warms the planet to unlivable temperatures in my lifetime?”
Drought, heat, the summer of 26



Top left: It is not only the people that are dead, St Mary’s Luton Parish Church, 5 August 2026; Middle: Another cloudless sky, Hastings, 6 August 2026, top right: Sunsetting, Hastings, 6 August 2026.



Above left: Let’s get this straight (East Sussex College and Hastings railway station, 7 August 2026); Middle: A shape of things to come (derelict Queensbury House, Hastings, 7 August 2026); Above right: I can see you (Station Plaza, Hastings, 7 August 2026)

I have drawn on a newspaper headline for Richard Littlejohn in the Daily Mail newspaper. Suitably silly comment but it still has currency as people confuse climate and weather.
Book Review – Ecotopia by Ernest Callenbach
This book has been sat on my bookshelf for two or three months. It is a shiney new edition that features an informative foreword by Malcolm Margolin (his publisher) and the prequel, Ecotopia Emerging (which is not being reviewed here). If you are planning on reading this book, read this entry no further. There are many spoilers.
The book was first published in 1975 – that is significant because many of the technologies that were clearly aspirant at the time are now at the forefront of the transition; for example, heat pumps and videophones (albeit wired). There is no plot as such. Everything revolves around the unlikely scenario that two-and-a-half states in North America split from the USA to create Ecotopia. These were Washington State, Oregon and the northern part of California (including San Francisco but not Los Angeles).
It is a closed and protected society such that only now is a New York journalist, William Weston allowed to enter to experience life in Ecotopia. He is, however, much more than a journalist. He is an agent looking for intelligence on how to re-unite the states.
There is a lot of hippie nonsense in the prose and the conceptualisation of Ecotopia. That said it is a more faithful manifestation of hippie-dom than what perhaps transpired. The eco-utopianism in the novel arguably could have been realised, but instead the utopianism transmogrified into libertarian silicon valley technological determinism. Callenbach obviously saw the opportunity, but as is so often the case, humanity chose a different direction when confronted with an inadequately signposted fork in the road.
Economics
So what does Ecotopia look like? The economic model is not easy to define exactly. It is still capitalist but it is mixed. There is much regulation, particularly about fuels, materials, housing, etc. There are no cars – though bicycles and electrified public transport including, remarkably, high speed trains, are abundant. There are some diesel trucks used for logging that simply have no substitute at this point in time.
Food and land are very important in this economy. Forests were – are being – reforested, though wood has become, once again, the main and favoured building material. Forests are managed sustainably, there is no clear cutting for lumber. It is not a vegetarian world, but the meat is not intensively reared. Some of it is hunted; deer, for example. What is true is that there is no shortage of food. There is a universal basic income, but most Ecotopians regard it too meagre to exist on. In the employed economy, the working week is 20 hours. That is generous, even by modern thinking on the relationship between work, leisure and volunteering. There is more functionality in this world – all consumer gadgets are mendable, and the people are taught – starting in school – to do the mending themselves. Universities are run by academics, but students can determine who gets employed as it is their fees that pay salaries. University education is often seen as an end in itself. It is a life experience worthy of investment. This may explain why many Ecotopians are experts in arguing esoteric concepts!
Ecotopia has a sophisticated science-base, so much so that scientists have discovered and businesses have commercialised bio-degradable plastic. This can be used for both packaging and for modular housing. Now there is a thought. There are factories extruding plastic for building purposes. Though not all Ecotopians are in favour, it is still plastic, after all. Much research is done in small research institutes located near universities. There is innovative work taking place that probably would not be funded in the USA; for example tapping electrical energy from algae (the inventors won a Nobel prize for their work). Research, however, is focused on practical/scientific disciplines. There is no room for the social sciences – political science, sociology and psychology. Though there is, interestingly, room for philosophy. History also survives much of it focused on pre-independence research (maybe to justify the independence rationale).
After independence, there was a flight of capital. The state had to nationalise farms, factories and retail. They ultimately brecame cooperatives, owned by the workers. Inheritance of property was abolished. The core tax is corporation tax – the state claims a percentage of output and invests the proceeds in public goods. There is also a land tax (p95). Imports attract very high tariffs to ward off competition from Asia. This does facilitate the circular economy; for example, people wear home-made clothes rather than buy low-price, low quality garments from abroad.
So, the circular economy exists in this world, and seems to work such that it is accepted and embraced. Ecotopians consume much less than their US counterparts. It is also degrowth which includes a falling population. In order to limit pressure on resources, the Ecotopian government initiated a fertility programme largely focused on women, birth control and access to abortion clinics. More economically, Ecotopia evolved a less-consumptive economy through decentralisation of power, taxation, health, education, agriculture and appropriate-scale food production more generally.
People live in mini-cities. It reminds me very much of the modern concept of the 15-minute city. Everything is within reach geographically. Though there are other Ecotopians who live in communes/forest camps on the land (p53). A family could be as many as 20 related and unrelated people who share space, domestic tasks and childcare.
Energy and law
There are no coal-fired power stations. There remain a few fission nuclear power stations, but these are increasingly seen as unsustainable because of the inability to deal safely with radioactive waste. There is geothermal, hydro, solar, “earth heat”, tides and wind. The sea thermal plant in Punta Gorda takes heat from the ocean passes it through heat exchangers to extract the heat that can be used for heating and presumably electricity generation.
The criminal justice system (pp89-90) is also noteworthy. Penal institutions exist and sentences are long – though there does not seem to be capital punishment. Inmates work (forced labour as described by some). There is a different hierarchy of crimes in Ecotopia. There are no laws against prostitution, drug use and gambling (these are seemingly “victimless crimes”. White collar crimes such as embezzlement, fraud, collusion, and similar, are treated as severely as assault and robbery. Likewise for deliberate pollution of air and water.
There is a pro-USA underground movement (p50-52). Weston meets a couple of representatives in his hotel. But nothing comes of this encounter, though the Ecotopian (counter)intelligence service is aware of that meeting (p63). In the end, Weston does not file his story relating to this encounter.
Race
Prior to independence, the three states that now constitute Ecotopia were racially mixed. Since independence, there is segregation after the black population sought to gain their own independence. Areas of San Francisco and Oakland (known as Soul City), have become city states with their own currencies, postage stamps and language (Swahili is increasingly spoken). Only international affairs are managed by the central Ecotopian government/state. More disturbing has been a proposal to move black populations, for example in Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley, into the black city states to free up valuable agricultural land. It is noted that people in the black city states earn more money largely because they work longer than the 20 hours than people in Ecotopia.
Media and communications
Ecotopia, on independence, broke up media conglomerates. Ultimately, ownership was limited to one media outlet per city. If a corporation retained the TV station, then it could not operate parallel newspapers and magazines (there is no social media in 1975 Ecotopia). Newspapers and magazines thrive despite the divestment.
TV was transformed. Rather than channels for entertainment, they became news and information outlets hosting debates, hearings and committee meetings! This approach perhaps influenced the C-Span model? For news there are no correspondents based in the USA, so the focus is domestic and other foreign affairs (Brazil is a favourite, especially after US air attacks).
Specialist books are printed at kiosks as they are not in print and sellable through book stores.
Sex
There is a lot of it. Especially during four (statutory) holidays, solstices and equinoxes, obviously! By way of a possible explanation, this is a post-1960s free love California influencing Callenbach’s thinking. Largely because women control their own fertility they also seem liberally to have sex with multiple partners. Weston, on being introduced to one of the forest camps, is initiated by being given a bath and having sex with Marissa, his host. Marissa becomes the chief protagonist in Weston’s ecotopianisation, for want of a better word. Sex is also, potentially, fundamental to the healthcare system. As noted, hospital patients are allocated a nurse who stays for the duration. Sex is so connected to wellbeing, it seems to be written into a recovery plan.
All women choose the father of their children. Incidentally, Callenbach is an awful writer of sex and even less good in writing about love (making).
Schools and education
In schools, children are taught to make things. Children also work the land as much as they learn in the classroom; they understand growing cycles, land fertility, harvesting and develop a deep knowledge about flora and fauna. It is a very practical education; they even learn how to operate printing presses! They learn to trap animals, build shelters, make weapons (bows and arrows). Schools are not free of charge (there is a grant system for poorer households). They are private enterprises, though largely owned by the teachers. Children undertake national examinations at 12 and 18 years of age.
Despite the absence of some subjects from curricula, most young people can play an instrument, are artists, dancers, actors, sculptors, film makers, etc. There are no big-name architects because, essentially, everyone is an architect, even if it is only designing a rudimentary shelter. Most communities have their own groups playing music mirroring their ethnicities. They all seem to have a dance beat. Subject captured musically are not too different from other countries – love, loss, etc.
Ritual war games and health
Most societies seem to have some outlet for simulated violence. Sport is the obvious channel for this, particularly between men. In Ecotopia, they have ritual war games which involve two bands of (young) men – maybe 25 on each side – with spears trying to kill one another. It seems a bit like hunting and ends when one man from one of the sides is isolated and then speared, more often than not, non-fatally (it is estimated that there are only 50 fatalities each year – p78, but certainly requiring surgery and hospital recuperation). Callenbach contrasts this number with fatalities on roads annually in the USA by way of justification. With the exception of the victim who is ritually whisked off to the hospital, after period of lamentation by the losing side, everyone feasts at the invitation and provision of the winning side.
The book has two entries involving war games. In the first, Weston is an observer. In the second, he is a participant. It should not surprise readers that he is speared which provides a segue for him to experience the healthcare system first hand.
The health system is, however, free at the point of use. It really is utopian. Each patient is allocated a full-time nurse. It is one-to-one care. There is less need for healthcare because Ecotopia’s air is clean, its water is uncontaminated and food is not sprayed with pesticides (I am pretty sure that Callenbach had read Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring). Doctors are generalists rather than consultant specialists. They are all trained in psychiatry which helps deal with mental health as well as physical health. They are well paid. Intensive care is not well developed.
Defence

There is a sophisticated decentralised armaments industry as well as a successful militia army that is difficult for the enemy to defeat.
The evidence of that success in defending the independent state is found in a scrapyard in southern San Francisco where over 7000 wrecked US helicopters can be seen (p125). The peace is kept, additionally, by the belief that secret weapons – mines – have been left in US cities and can be detonated should the USA once again seek to invade (New York and Washington DC are named specifically, p4).
Areas of concern
The president is female; the governing paradigm is female. That is not reflected in how women are regarded by Callenbach – who is, of course, the architect of Ecotopia. Weston’s attempt to control Marissa, for example, look familiar. Equally, the nurse performing sexual therapy is surreal to say the least. The male part of the population needs, moreover, ritual violence through its war games. Why is sport not enough? It reminds me of the film, Rollerball, which was also from 1975. Whilst Rollerball’s premise is that the world has reached a corporate utopia, a violent gladiatorial entertainment is needed to keep order and reward compliance. Ecotopia is not a corporate utopia, but it premises the human male “need” for violence.
Then there is the segregation of races. Callenbach sees it not as segregation but as political economy. It is seemingly the case that the black citizens could not realistically embrace a radical Ecotopia, preferring instead to retain more of the trappings of regular capitalism similar to that of the United States.
I am also perplexed and disturbed by Callenbach’s thinking on degrowth, particularly degrowth in the population. And whilst eugenics is not a feature of Callenbach’s Ecotopia, the segregation, closed borders and selective breeding does raise alarm bells. Eco utopias are not necessarily progressive. To be fair, the borders are closed because the USA is hostile neighbour. Ecotopians celebrate victory in their early years over the USA’s invasion attempt (perhaps thinking here about Cuba?).
Towards the end of the book, Weston is kept hostage essentially until he concedes the superiority of Ecotopia over its neighbour (he is a New Yorker with a family and mistress/girl friend there). There is a final twist which is flagged up earlier on when Weston asks Marissa whether she wants to create a family and who she would choose as a father. To paraphrase, she responds by suggesting that he might already know the answer. Weston was always destined to stay in Ecotopia.
(1) The helicopter scrapyard is a picture from Edward Burtynsky and taken from https://uk.pinterest.com/pin/454300681161318244/
Book Review – Elemental by Arthur Snell
Much of the climate change literature, quite rightly, is based on the planetary sciences – weather, oceans, gases, etc. Arthur Snell, here, provides and important additional perspective, that of geo-politics. Ultimately, if we thought the science was tough enough to comprehend, the geo-politics can only complicate matters. Of course we are talking climate migration, food and fuel security, water (fresh for drinking and agriculture, saline oceans for weather stability and free trade routes).
The book is organised, as the title suggests – around the elements of fire, water, air and earth. This is as good scaffolding as any, I think; it gives Snell the opportunity to share insights from his own diplomatic experiences and new travels and discoveries (revelations, probably).
Readers of this blog may already be well aware of the mechanics of climate change, the IPCC’s periodic reporting and the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 achieved only by eliminating the burning of fossil fuels and, unfortunately, some unlikely carbon capture and storage. At one end of the spectrum are poor, low lying countries such as Bangladesh, particularly vulnerable to sea-level rises, erosion, salination of agricultural land, amongst others. At the other end of the spectrum is Trump’s USA in denial about human-caused climate change (I write this section on 4 July on the 250th anniversary of the USA when a good number of events have been cancelled because of extreme heat) and the promotion of fossil fuel exploitation and consumption and the active suppression of renewables, wind, solar and batteries. And then there is the rest of us pulling back from commitments because of a far-right false narrative about cost and impacts on electricity bills and lifestyle.
Worrying highlights
Let’s take Russia. Russia is under stress having opted for an all-out invasion of Ukraine, it has few allies in the West (it is difficult to know whether the USA is an ally, it has to be said). Say what we will about Russia, it does seem to have a more forward thinking approach than many Western countries. For example, The Russian state is watching closely the opportunities for opening up and controlling a strategic arctic sea route. The natural resources currently locked under the Arctic ice become accessible as the permafrost melts. And that secretive and provocative settlement on Svalbard, Barentsburg (Norwegian sovereignty, and a NATO member). Readers wanting to see this, Simon Reeves went there on his Scandinavian adventure. Snell describes it on pages 297-301. The main town on the archipelago is Longyearbyen which serves primarily as a summer tourism base.
For the time being, Svalbard is a demilitarised zone under a treaty dating back to 1925. There may not be weapons on the archipelego, but there seems to be plenty of NATO intelligence equipment linked to the mainland (800km south) by an undersea cable that has already been damaged by, very likely, a Russian “trawler” (page 300). Such cables are also being cut in the Baltic.
China is another actor in this area. Whilst it has no coastline in the Arctic, it is very active in the region. It has observer status in the Arctic Council. It has also built a fleet of icebreakers (the USA has one, apparently). China’s interest in an Arctic passage come out of the insecurity of existing sea/trade routes controlled by hostile powers including Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia (p308). It is potentially a “polar silk road” to add to the Belt and Road Initiative, amongst others. Clearly Trump’s claim on Canada and Greenland is part of this strategic game (though one wonders whether Trump understands it quite like Xi and Putin).
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia looks to the East to sell its oil and gas – China is now the key recipient of these resources. Russia also stays close to China because of arms procurement and the Arctic passage. But there is an even more intriguing reason for the alliance, and that is migration and food security. Snell offers a very interesting insight into how Russian land opened up by the melting of permafrost can become highly productive agricultural land that is particularly attractive to Chinese migrants and for which Russia has too few ethnic citizens to work (p118-9). Crucially, however, there are tensions that go back a long way. In a nutshell, Vladivostok and its hinterland used to be part of China. The port city was Haishenwai before being renamed. Arguably, China wants this territory back.
Just back to international treaties for a moment, Snell signals how jeopardised international treaties are becoming. For example, Antarctica belongs to no one (under a treaty dated 1959), though claims are being staked, as it were, again, as the ice melts and the resources become accessible. It is also a demilitarised region (or unmilitarised). China has four research stations on the island each with military capabilities and functions. The 1991 Madrid Protocol that bans mineral extraction is being challenged. It is up for renegotiation in 2048, let us see if it is not opened up before then. Finally two treaties between China and Russian (Aigun and Beijing) which formalised China’s ceding of territory to Russian may also become life expired.
Obviously I could summarise the whole book at length. It is not the purpose of a review, and I recommend the book to anyone with the slightest interest in geopolitics let alone the geopolitics of climate change. But here are a few more quick highlights:
- Why rice is so difficult to genetically modify (page 40)
- China’s dominance in EVs and the materials that drive them (p67-9)
- Weather control and geoengineering (chapter 10)
- importing PV electricity from Morocco (p169)
- Middle-East oil empires (183-191)
Photo: Arthur Snell from https://tinyurl.com/3y6mrusm
Modern world
The Drowned World, JG Ballard, book review
This book is not a modern climate change novel (I read the 4th Estate paperback published in 2024). First published in 1962, the same year as Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring was published, Ballard envisages severe climate change caused by “[t]he succession of geophysical upheavals which had transformed the Earth’s climate…a series of prolonged solar storms lasting several years caused by a sudden instability in the Sun had enlarged the Van Allen belts and diminished the Earth’s gravitational hold upon the outer layers of the ionosphere. As these vanished into space depleting the Earth’s barrier against the full impact of solar radiation, temperatures began to climb steadily, the heated atmosphere expanding outwards into the ionosphere where the cycle was completed.” (p21) The polar ice caps melted and civilisation’s cities were submerged under water and silt. Children are a rarity.
Temperatures began to rise steadily. Quite a bit of the story takes place as temperatures are heading towards those that cannot sustain human life. The people have gone north (though the terms of the migration are only scantily discussed). Declining fertility has reduced the human population to around 5 million. A residual population of biologists and scientists are studying/surveying the territory after London – or was it Berlin or Paris? – flooded and became a series of fetid lagoons populated by aquatic reptiles, notably caimans and iguanas as well as delightful malarial insects. There were also some remainers to be rounded up by Colonel Riggs and his team of former military operatives occupying a test ship.
The story focuses, however, on Robert Kerans (who lives in the top floors of the abandoned Ritz Hotel a penthouse suite complete with ready-to-wear wardrobe bizarrely left in place after the exodus) and his possible girlfriend, Beatrice Dahl. Beatrice is an independent-minded woman who refuses to leave when the authorities say they should (because it is going to get hotter and wetter). Beatrice lives in a block with a swimming pool and balcony and tends to her appearance assiduously, despite the apocalypse around her. The accommodation had once been her grandfather’s pieds à terre. He had been in money and had brought her up after the death of her parents soon after she was born.
Beatrice Dahl lay back on one of the deck-chairs, her long oiled body gleaming in the shadows like a sleeping python. The pink-tipped fingers of one hand rested lightly on an ice-filled glass on a table beside her, while the other hand turned slowly through the pages of a magazine. Wide blue-black sunglasses hid her smooth sleek face, but Kernans noted the slightly sullen pound of her firm lower lip. Presumably Riggs had annoyed her, forcing her to accept the logic of his argument. p.25
I say this because she is the only woman in the story. Not quite only a love interest, but her role is to be Kerans’ almost girlfriend and to the the desire of the true villain of the story, a character called Strangman. She reminds us of civilisation’s narcissism (actually, I mean capitalistic narcissism) in the sense of a simple definition of human female beauty and obsession.
Riggs wants to leave with the full team; notwithstanding Kerans’ and “the Dahl woman”, a character called Dr. Bodkin, Kerans’ assistant at the station, remains and Hardman who was the subject of a lively chapter as he was hunted down by Riggs’ men, only to slip away. He does reappear in the final chapter symbolising perhaps what can rapidly happen to us when we experience de-civilisation in combination with severe climate change; the two are not unconnected, of course.
The de-civilisation is best seen in the arrival of Strangman and his band of machete wielding looters. Their raison d’être is to loot what has been left behind as the cities flood, in this case, London. By some jiggery pokery, he manages to deploy pumps and dam walls to drain the lagoons, reveal the buildings, including museums, and take what is valuable such as jewelry, historical artefacts and equipment. He becomes increasingly meglomaniacal throwing lavish parties, entrapping Beatrice and wearing down and eventually torturing Kerans. Bodkin tries unsuccessfully to blow up the walls that keep out the water. His punishment is death.
Kerans is eventually saved from the machetes by the unexpected return of Colonel Riggs, along with his “dour conscientious Scotsman called McCready”, a troop of unnamed soldiers and weaponry. Within hours, though, Kerans has himself determined that the lagoons should be returned to leave alone the flooded cities and their secrets – basically, undo Strangman’s work and looting project. Whilst he does manage to blow up the walls, Colonel Riggs is not happy and shoots at Kerans injuring him in the leg. Kerans escapes, says farewell to Beatrice and achieves a getaway south (into the heat and storms). It is here that he is reunited with Hardman to reflect on a return to a world from the past – the primeval soup, effectively.
Shanghai
Most novelists draw on their own experience, at least for their first novel – as this was for Ballard. Ballard’s experience was one of 3 years in an Japanese internment camp and the huge floods that came down the Yangtse River. Ballard had a background in science – he was an editor of a scientific journal. He had also been a medical student practised in cutting up cadavers. So the extraordinary science behind the solar storms that precipitated his climate change made sense. The descriptions of the lagoons and their unfriendly inhabitants may be grounded in that, too.
Meaning
I have to admit, this is my first JG Ballard novel. Well, not quite. I read Crash many years ago, and I remember none of it! What I might be able to say is that Ballard has a particular view of human nature. Whether it be de-civilisation or sexual pleasure derived from road accidents. There is a sense of existentialism. None of the characters in The Drowned World seem overly interested in making things better. They live very much in the present and are highly individualistic – Beatrice with her appearance and stubbornness on the leaving question, Hardman and Bodkin, equally rejecting a flight to the North and some other kind of life, and Kerans himself finally and inexplicably leaving Beatrice with Riggs and fleeing into the abyss.
Here is existentialism on one side, and surrealism on the other. Beatrice’s penthouse is adorned with original works of Salvador Dali, Paul Delvaux (above left, picture taken from our recent visit to Vienna’s Albertina Gallery, Landscape with Lanterns) and Max Ernst. Surrealism propels us into fantasy world with new configurations of the familiar to unnerve us and push us towards deep reflections about what we understand by reality. They have a dream-like quality. And one dream in particular is recurring (and possibly haunting) the team. Beatrice’s so-called jungle dream briefly described on page 50 where she also reassures Kerans, “[d]on’t look so stern, you’ll be dreaming them too, soon.” And so he does.
As the great sun drummed nearer, almost filling the sky itself, the dense vegetation along the limestone cliffs was flung back abruptly, to reveal the black and stone-grey heads of enormous Triassic lizards. Strutting forward to the edge of the cliffs, they began to roar together in the sun, the noise gradually mounting until it became indistinguishable from the volcanic pounding of the solar flares…As the dull pounding rose, he felt the barriers which divided his own cells from the surrounding medium dissolving, and he swam forwards, spreading outwards across the black thudding water…” (p71)
The dream – in particular Kerans joining the ranks of those suffering them – is a trigger for some form of acceptance that humanity cannot survive in this de-evolution. The Drowned World is one that is returning to one that is dominated by reptiles, best adapted to the new reality of heat, swamp and flood. It might be feasible in the North to survive. but with a declined birth rate, the prospects are not good. So what is the point?
Picture: JG Ballard, http://www.zarez.hr/124/kritika1.htm
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